Summary：
As the peak farming season ends, China’s fertilizer market has entered a mild adjustment phase. While overall demand slows, autumn fertilizer needs remain resilient, driven by soil restoration, crop rotation, and policy support. Market players are watching cost trends and regional demand recovery as key factors shaping the next price movement.
The Agricultural Peak Season Ends, and the Fertilizer Market Enters a “Wait-and-See” Period
As summer crops are gradually harvested and major crop fertilization peaks have passed, most regions in China have now exited the busy agricultural season. Fertilizer market activity has declined significantly, with many distributors focusing on inventory clearance and structural adjustments amid a strong atmosphere of caution.
According to field surveys by Sina Finance, many regional markets are now in a “low fertilizer-use period.” Dealers have slowed purchases, delayed quotations, and some manufacturers have even started maintenance or temporarily halted production. In Northeast, North, and parts of Southern China, farmers’ summer fertilizer needs have largely been met, resulting in lower market concentration and sluggish sales.
On the cost side, the prices of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium raw materials, after earlier increases, have shown partial declines, putting downward pressure on downstream fertilizer prices. In addition, negative sentiment and slow exports have caused some product prices to adjust.
Nevertheless, autumn fertilizer demand remains resilient even amid the market slowdown. Many major agricultural regions have not yet reached the true peak of autumn fertilizer preparation. Once favorable policies or financing support are introduced, short-term concentrated demand could quickly emerge.
The Logic and Regional Differences Behind Sustained Autumn Fertilizer Demand
Although the overall market has entered an off-season, autumn fertilizer still plays a vital role in multiple cropping systems due to farmers’ needs for crop rotation, yield improvement, soil moisture retention, and nutrient replenishment. The main supporting factors include:
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Crop Growth Requirements
In autumn, many regions enter critical stages such as regreening or basal fertilization for wheat, rapeseed, and rice. Farmers apply phosphorus, potassium, and micronutrient fertilizers to improve soil conditions and promote root development.
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Soil Nutrient Replenishment Mechanism
Summer crops are heavily nitrogen-dependent. Autumn is an important period for restoring phosphorus, potassium, and micronutrient levels in the soil, ensuring stable crop growth in the next cycle.
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Policy and Fiscal Support
Under the dual drivers of grain security and rural revitalization policies, many local governments continue to introduce fertilizer subsidies, order-based procurement, and agricultural input support programs — all of which help stimulate autumn fertilizer transactions.
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Regional Variations Stimulate Local Activity
In regions with favorable weather, good soil conditions, and strong yield expectations, distributors and farmers often initiate early purchases, leading to localized price increases.
Overall, although autumn fertilizer demand is smaller than that in spring or summer, its economic and policy importance should not be underestimated.
Market Trends Across Fertilizer Categories
The fertilizer market is currently showing a pattern of “adjustment and divergence with moderate slowdown.”
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Nitrogen Fertilizers (Urea, Ammonium Sulfate, etc.):
After reaching earlier highs, prices have slightly retreated due to lower raw material costs and slower demand. With autumn topdressing gradually starting, nitrogen fertilizer prices are expected to stabilize at lower levels, though uncertainty remains due to raw material and environmental policies.
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Phosphate Fertilizers (MAP, DAP):
The phosphate market faces downward pressure. Slow exports and high inventories have kept MAP and DAP prices weak. Some enterprises have implemented maintenance shutdowns and production limits to stabilize prices. If autumn demand picks up or policy support strengthens, a short-term rebound may occur by late Q3.
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Potash Fertilizers:
Highly sensitive to global market trends, potash prices have fluctuated frequently. Tight import availability or rising freight rates could support domestic prices, though global oversupply remains a risk factor.
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Compound Fertilizers:
The compound fertilizer market is in a seasonal transition with weak trading activity. Upstream cost support and downstream demand softness are in a tug-of-war. As the autumn season approaches, premium formulations and tailored fertilizers may lead the recovery.
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Organic and Biological Fertilizers:
Driven by policy support for green agriculture, organic and bio-fertilizers continue steady growth. Although short-term cost and logistics pressures exist, the medium- to long-term growth outlook remains strong due to soil improvement needs.
Overall, nitrogen and potash fertilizers are likely to stabilize first, while phosphates await demand recovery. The performance of compound and organic fertilizers will depend on the pace of autumn demand activation and government support. Industry analysts broadly expect that if the autumn fertilizer market launches smoothly, structural recovery across the fertilizer sector could occur later this year.
Market Risks and Uncertainties
Key risk factors to watch include:
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Raw Material Price Volatility:
Prices of ammonia, coal, natural gas, sulfur, and phosphate rock — all key fertilizer feedstocks — can quickly transmit cost fluctuations downstream.
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Environmental and Production Restrictions:
Some regions may enforce staggered production or winter emission limits, constraining output during the autumn-winter period.
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Weather and Climate Conditions:
Droughts, excessive rainfall, or typhoons could disrupt fertilization plans and dampen farmer confidence.
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Export and Global Market Pressure:
For export-dependent phosphate and potash producers, weaker external demand, tariffs, and rising freight costs continue to pose challenges.
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Financing and Credit Conditions:
If farmers face delayed payments or limited credit access during autumn, purchasing activity could weaken or shrink in volume.
Strategic Recommendations and Industry Focus
To better manage the current market transition, the following actions are recommended for different stakeholders:
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For Distributors:
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Replenish cautiously and manage inventory risk.
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Focus on established brands and reliable compound fertilizer formulas.
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Monitor local autumn fertilizer timing and adjust procurement rhythm accordingly.
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Strengthen communication with farmers and cooperatives to secure early orders and promote new fertilizer products.
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For Fertilizer Manufacturers:
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Optimize production structures and mitigate cost volatility.
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Enhance R&D, product differentiation, and technology upgrades.
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Track policy developments closely and pursue local subsidy opportunities.
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For Agricultural Authorities and Policymakers:
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Allocate fertilizer subsidies, interest discounts, and procurement programs to support stable autumn demand.
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Monitor prices to prevent unhealthy competition and poor-quality products.
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Promote eco-friendly, organic, and slow-release fertilizers to advance sustainable agriculture.
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For Farmers and Cooperatives:
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Adopt precision fertilization based on soil tests, crop nutrient needs, and weather conditions.
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Stay informed about new fertilizer types, technical services, and policy incentives to plan purchases effectively.
Outlook
Although the agricultural peak season has ended and the fertilizer market has entered a short-term adjustment phase, autumn fertilizer demand remains supported by crop growth cycles, policy backing, and soil nutrient recovery needs.
If supply–demand dynamics, cost structures, and policy measures align effectively, the fertilizer market could see a localized rebound from autumn through year-end — signaling renewed momentum after a period of cooling.
About CCM:
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